Survivorship Bias in the Housing Market

In the real estate industry, agents and lenders speak often of average days on the market, closed to list price ratios and other metrics.

There’s something we need to really consider to gain perspective on the overall market conditions, though. That concept is survivorship bias.

This form of bias results when one mistakes one part of the data for all the data. In the case of housing, if I share the following stats with you:

The closed to original list price ratio for the last 30 days for Single Family Homes in El Paso County is 98.56%.

I am sharing that homes are selling for 2.52% below their list price on average in the last 30 days.

Contrast that with this same time last year, in which homes were selling for a median of 98.51%

One might infer from this that the market hasn’t shifted much.

However, the homes that did not sell in the last 30 days increased by a factor of over 70%.

Looking only at one set of the data – the homes that sold – would blind an observer to the fact that quite a few more homes have fallen out of the market in these last 30 days.

Here’s a bit more technical analysis via my GrokTheMarket blog.

Neighborhood Spotlight: Homes in 80909 — March 2026

80909 Market Snapshot: What $400K Gets You in Southeast Colorado Springs

ZIP code 80909 covers a big chunk of Colorado Springs. It’s got everything from older ranch homes to newer builds, which explains why you’ll see such a wide price range here. With homes averaging around $400K and sitting on the market for over two months, this area is giving buyers some breathing room and causing some concern for sellers. 

What’s Available Right Now

There are 63 homes actively for sale in 80909 as of March 2026, with an average list price of $401,160. But here’s what’s interesting about this market: the range is massive. You’ve got entry-level properties starting around $145K and luxury homes pushing close to $800K. That $400K average includes everything from 1960s ranches that need work to move-in-ready properties.

The key number to watch here is days on market: 67 days average. That’s telling you this isn’t a market where you need to write offers sight unseen. Homes are sitting long enough for buyers to actually think through their decisions, get inspections, and negotiate terms.

What’s Actually Selling

In the recent period, 26 homes closed with an average sale price of $391,454. Notice that gap? Homes are listing at $401K but closing at $391K on average. The close price to original list price ratio is 98.04%, which means buyers are getting about 2% off asking prices on average.

That might not sound like much, but in a $400K purchase, we’re talking about $8K in savings, enough to cover some closing costs or immediate repairs. More importantly, it signals that sellers can’t just throw any number on the wall and expect it to stick. Pricing needs to be realistic from day one.

If You’re Buying Here

Here’s the practical reality: you’re looking at roughly $2,400-2,600 monthly for a typical home here, assuming you put 20% down at current interest rates. That includes your mortgage, taxes, and insurance. If you’re stretching to afford that payment, this slower market actually works in your favor.

With homes averaging 67 days on market, you have time to be selective. Don’t feel pressured to bid on the first decent house you see. You can schedule inspections, research neighborhoods, and even negotiate repairs or price reductions. The days of waiving everything and hoping for the best are behind us here.

If You’re Selling Here

The data is telling you something important: price it right from the start. With that 98% close-to-list ratio and 67-day average market time, overpriced homes are clearly sitting and eventually selling for less than they could have gotten with aggressive initial pricing.

If your neighbor’s house sold for $420K last year, don’t automatically list yours for $440K hoping to leave room for negotiation. Buyers have options right now, and they’re using that leverage. A home priced at market value will sell in 30-45 days. One that’s priced 5-10% high will sit for months and likely end up selling for less than market value after price cuts.

priceChart chart

The 80909 market is functioning normally right now: not the seller’s paradise of recent years, but not a buyer’s dream either. It’s a market where good pricing, realistic expectations, and solid preparation matter more than timing or luck. Whether you’re buying or selling, the key is understanding what the numbers actually mean for your specific situation rather than getting caught up in broad market predictions.

Curious about homes in 80909? I can pull the latest data and walk you through it. 
rob@iconiccoloradoproperties.com or (719) 440-6626.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 16, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 15, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 14, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 13, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 12, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 11, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 10, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 09, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Housing Market — March 08, 2026

Today’s Colorado Springs housing market snapshot is live — including active listings, median prices, days on market, and whether it’s a buyer’s or seller’s market right now.

Read the full market report on Grok the Market →

Data sourced from the Pikes Peak MLS, updated daily. Questions? Call Rob or visit shouldimovenow.com for the interactive version.

Colorado Springs Realtor®